Next James Bond Odds: Taylor-Johnson Still Favored to Be the Next Bond

For nearly six decades, the Broccoli family has been the sole architect of the James Bond franchise, carefully selecting each actor and director with the precision of a MI6 operation.

From Sean Connery to Daniel Craig, the family's decision on who deserved the 007 moniker was final, and nothing would be greenlit without Barbara’s approval. That was before Amazon provided a billion reasons for the Broccoli’s to dramatically rewrite the script. After acquiring MGM studios for $8.5 billion, the tech giant has officially taken control of the most prestigious spy franchise in cinema history.

In their first move, Amazon MGM moved against the grain to sign acclaimed Canadian director Denis Villeneuve, signalling a serious reimagining of the beloved franchise. Villeneuve was not a frontrunner for the position, and it is unclear how much control he would have over the production under the new custodians.

Similarly, no clues have been provided as to who the 26th Bond could be, but industry insiders suggest Amazon intends to maintain the Broccoli family's core casting philosophy. The mandate remains unchanged: find a younger, sophisticated British actor, swiftly eliminating from contention the likes of Idris Elba, Henry Cavill, and Tom Hardy.

James Bond has found himself in a unique Amazonian jungle, and for the first time ever it is unclear who will be calling the shots. With a director finally chosen, a lead can now be cast and Amazon MGM can break ground on their marquee billion-dollar franchise. Since the acquisition and subsequent Villeneuve appointment, FanDuel Canada has provided us a new set of odds:

Next James Bond Odds

(Updated July 7 at 67:45 a.m. ET)

Next James Bond Picks

As one-time Bond Pierce Brosnan said, more people have walked on the moon than have played James Bond (Indeed that is correct, with the score 12-7 to NASA).

Dickinson, Elordi, and Holland are the 3 names dominating conversations after rumours of a shortlist surfaced, and perennial Bond favourite Aaron Taylor-Johnson joins the front of the pack that is dominating the odds so far.

Here's a detailed look at the most notable contenders for the iconic role:

Aaron Taylor-Johnson (+125)

The name most closely linked to Bond over the last two years, Aaron Taylor-Johnson is once again sitting as the clear market favourite. His action-heavy resume featuring Bullet Train, Tenet, and Nosferatu is seasoned enough to handle the weight of the Bond franchise and Taylor-Johnson himself fits the profile perfectly. He is one English candidate that will always be mentioned in Bond casting conversations, and on paper, there’s very little standing in his way.

However, plenty of great English actors have come and gone as favourites for this role, and despite the constant noise and speculation, no rumoured agreement has ever surfaced. With any prior approaches and promises now moving beyond Barbara Broccoli’s control, the reality of Taylor-Johnson’s path to Bond has only grown murkier. For a star who’s been rumoured to have already signed the Bond contract more than once, there’s still no reliable indication, beyond some Omega watch ads, that this casting is happening.

If it feels too good to be true, maybe it is, and it’s entirely possible that our perennial frontrunner has already missed his moment and is no longer on Amazon’s new watchlist. This is a casting that has made sense for the best part of 2 years now, but +125 just isn’t a number I’m willing to chase.

Harris Dickinson (+430)

Still only 29, Dickinson is a relative newcomer riding high off the buzz of his lead performance in Babygirl last year.

Despite earning critical acclaim across several recent projects, the tall Englishman lacks the resume the studio may be looking for in choosing their franchise anchor. His earlier price was inflated by his inclusion on the rumoured shortlist, but with the market now adjusting, he's drifted to a more reasonable number that better reflects his current profile.

Dickinson is a talented actor that is appreciated within the niche of film circles, but the Bond brand demands more than acting potential. With a role in Sam Mendes’ four Beatles films now on his plate, Dickinson could complicate his availability if Amazon wants to break ground on this long-term franchise right away.

It is a good shout but the +430 price feels more like a reflection of casting gossip than a realistic forecast of him becoming the next global spy icon.

Jacob Elordi (+600)

At just 27, Jacob Elordi is not only one of the youngest on this list, but also the only Australian being seriously considered, though its worth mentioning the franchise has gone Down Under before with the casting of George Lazenby. While a talented actor, his casting and body of work typically leans more towards romantic drama roles than anything resembling a spy thriller. He has built his reputation through roles in Euphoria and Saltburn but has been pivoting to auteur-driven projects, starring as Del Toro’s Frankenstein later this year.

He’s earning respect in the industry but the only real explanation for why he’s this high on the board is Variety’s shortlist placing him amongst the top three. Elordi’s inclusion came as a surprise that has evoked mixed reactions within film circles, and while not being English isn’t a disqualifier it is likely part of the reason Elordi wasn’t touted seriously for the role before.

This is a respected actor with clear talent, but this would be priced very differently if not for a rumoured shortlist, and at +600 there is not enough to entice a bet on the Australian.

Tom Holland (+600)

The final name on the elusive shortlist that has shaped most of this market, Tom Holland is possibly the biggest British superstar to be considered. Unlike Elordi and Dickinson, Holland is given less than a 15% chance of becoming the next Bond despite his edge in star power.

Aside from often being seen as too baby-faced to convincingly carry a license to kill, Holland is also one of Hollywood’s busiest actors, with Nolan’s Odyssey and new Spider-Man and Avengers entries still in the pipeline.

From a business perspective, Amazon MGM may hesitate from casting an actor so closely associated with Disney properties to be the face of their studio. Having established himself as a global icon, committing a near decade to film Bond seems counterintuitive to his career trajectory. While his inclusion on the rumoured shortlist suggests industry curiosity, his +600 odds reflect his unlikely prospects of juggling both the roles of James Bond and Peter Parker.

Aaron Pierre (+750)

As is the trend with much of this market, Aaron Pierre is a British actor whose career is peaking at precisely the right moment. The 31-year-old has been a fancast favourite in Bond circles for years, often championed as the ideal choice if the franchise chooses to introduce its first Black James Bond story. Pierre has excelled in dramatic roles like Rebel Ridge and was handpicked to lead as Mufasa in last year’s revival, but he is still waiting on his big blockbuster moment.

Considering he wasn’t included in the rumoured shortlist floating around, Pierre’s +750 price tag is likely fueled by fan enthusiasm rather than insider momentum. Despite this, the market refuses to count him out and his recent castings HBO’s Lanterns project and Amazon MGM’s very own Love of Your Life have only improved his odds since Amazon’s acquisition. There’s no clear signal yet, but if you’re looking to take a calculated swing, +750 on Pierre isn’t a bad place to start.

Damson Idris (+750)

Damson Idris’s F1 breakout has landed, and with the film’s success, the Bond hype train is already starting to pick up steam; something we flagged last summer in our last Bond update. The odds have worsened slightly since, but at a respectable +750 there is still meat on the bone for a star we are seeing bloom in real time.

Josh O’Connor (+1600)

Considered a rising favourite earlier in the year, Josh O’Connor has quietly slid into dark horse territory. Much of the steam that made him a favourite earlier this year came from a confident insider prediction, but the market rallied behind it. At the time, there was real belief that O’Connor had the right mix of talent and charm to land the role, and O’Connor saw his chances peak as high as 55%. While that momentum has since faded and his price has adjusted, the 34-year-old has built a strong, versatile career in the independent film scene, and at this price there’s no pressure in taking a longshot on a proven British talent. His work and critical acclaim has kept him in the spotlight, but perhaps not in the flashy way Amazon may require from its lead.

In any case, +1600 on FanDuel is an enticing bet for an actor the market once genuinely believed was next in line for the role.

Paul Mescal (+2100)

Mescal has built a fast-moving career working almost exclusively with esteemed directors and auteurs, quickly establishing himself as one of the most in-demand actors of his generation at just 29. Before his upcoming project Hamnet has even hit theatres, he has signed to play Paul

McCartney in several upcoming Beatles biopics. His performance in Gladiator II proved he can handle gritty, physical roles, showing the kind of intensity that could translate into a convincing action lead. Still, as an Irish actor in a market focused on younger British talent, Mescal’s +2100 price reflects a lack of desire and the uncertainty around a multi-year deal with such an in-demand actor.

We’ve seen plenty of frontrunners and so-called “confirmed” castings in the years since the last Bond film, but betting on the latest hot names has not yet paid off. The Cavills and Hardys of the world have come and gone, and even Taylor-Johnson, despite remaining in the lead for over a year, has yet to officially cross the finish line. Villeneuve’s director appointment came without leaks or insider chatter, serving as a reminder that the real decisions are happening far from the rumour mill.

My Pick

Main pick: In a race that no one seems able to call with confidence, I’ll be returning my attention to the other end of the board, and I believe the best value lies with Aaron Pierre at +750.

Longshot: A lot of the market went to sleep in January genuinely thinking they would wake up to Josh O’Connor as the new Bond. At +1600, I am a dreamer.