2025 Jack Link's 500 Predictions at Talladega: Best NASCAR Odds, Expert Picks & Prop Bets
After a holiday weekend off, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to the biggest drafting track on the circuit in Talladega Superspeedway, as we offer our 2025 Jack Link's 500 Predictions at Talladega.
This historic venue is known for its crazy fast speeds, wild infield parties, and unexpected outcomes - making it all the more fun to bet on! Let’s dive into the NASCAR odds and expert picks for the Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega.
📊 2025 Jack Link's 500 odds & favorites at Talladega
Here are the latest Jack Link's 500 odds and favorites at Talladega via BetMGM.
🥇 Jack Link's 500 betting favorites 🥇
- Ryan Blaney, +1000 ($10 to win $100)
- Joey Logano, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
- Brad Keselowski, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
- Denny Hamlin, +1300 ($10 to win $130)
- Kyle Busch, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
- William Byron, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
- Austin Cindric, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
- Chase Elliott, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
- Kyle Larson, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
- Bubba Wallace, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
- Christopher Bell, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
- Tyler Reddick, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
- Ross Chastain, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
- Chase Briscoe, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
- Alex Bowman, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
- Chris Buescher, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
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🏁 Jack Link's 500 predictions, expert picks & best bets at Talladega
Racing at Talladega always seems to come down to the last lap. That may sound like it should describe every race, but after Kyle Larson led 411 of 500 laps at Bristol two weeks ago, it’s an important distinction to make.
Talladega is simply built different, largely because of the superspeedway package, which limits drivers’ top overall speeds and forces them to draft in large packs. In recent seasons, including this year, superspeedway races have been dominated by Ford drivers but ultimately decided by late-race incidents.
We saw this in the Daytona 500 this year, with Fords leading 143 of 201 laps but failed to win. We also saw this the next week at Atlanta, where Fords led 195 of 266 laps but failed to win.
Unsurprisingly, three of this race’s favorites - Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano - drive Fords. They’re favorites because they’re the three winningest active drivers at Talladega, and it's why I'm backing one of those three to win this weekend.
🏆 Pick to win Jack Link's 500: Brad Keselowski (+1200 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
1. Dale Earnhardt. T2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. T2. Jeff Gordon. T2. Brad Keselowski. No, that’s not just a list of four (well, three and one future) NASCAR Hall of Famers - it’s also a list of the all-time winningest drivers at Talladega Superspeedway.
While Keselowski hasn’t won here since 2021 - or with his new team, RFK Racing - it certainly feels inevitable. He won in his first-ever Cup Series start at this track, edging out Carl Edwards in one of the most memorable finishes in series history. He also finished second here in both races last year.
After disappointments at Daytona and Atlanta to start this season, I expect Keselowski to finally return to Victory Lane. He's dealing as short as +1000 across our best sports betting sites, so lock in the +1200 at ESPN BET before it gets bid off the board.
💎 Best value bet to win Jack Link's 500: Ryan Preece (+5000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
While Keselowski hasn’t found Victory Lane at a superspeedway since joining RFK Racing, his teammate Chris Buescher won the summer race at Daytona in 2023. With RFK Racing expanding to a three-car operation this year, Preece stands to benefit from their solid superspeedway package.
For whatever reason, this price doesn’t reflect that advantage. Preece is as short as +3500 at other sportsbooks and for good reason - beyond his new team, Preece has shown a lot of talent at Talladega.
He finished an impressive third in his Cup Series debut at this track. Since then, he has posted five top-15 results in subpar equipment. While he'll probably need some attrition to win Sunday’s race, these +5000 odds at FanDuel are simply too good to pass up.
🎯 Best long shot to win Jack Link's 500: John Hunter Nemechek (+8500 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Sure, Legacy Motor Club isn’t a competitive organization. You don’t need to drive for one to have success on superspeedways, and Nemechek has proven that. Last year, he scored one top-10 and two top-15s at superspeedways, and he already has one top-five and two top-10s in two starts at these tracks.
While Nemechek hasn’t found Victory Lane at Talladega yet, he did win the 2023 Xfinity Series race at Atlanta, and he has routinely piloted subpar equipment to better-than-expected results on these tracks. With only a win standing between him and a playoff spot, getting him at +8500 is too good to pass up - especially with other books hanging far less generous numbers.
💰 Best Jack Link's 500 prop bets & picks at Talladega
If you’ve followed my NASCAR bets this season, my top prop bet for this weekend’s race at Talladega will come as no surprise.
The Fords have shown far too much speed - and their drivers have far too much talent - for this organization to be a miserable 0-for-2 at superspeedway tracks thus far in 2025. We’ll be talking about two of my favorite superspeedway bets for every event with our best prop bets for the Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega.
🔥 Best prop bet for Jack Link's 500: Ford Winning Manufacturer (+150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Since the start of the NextGen era in 2022, drivers behind the wheel of a Ford have led more than half the laps at superspeedway tracks. When we narrow to scope to since 2023, that number spikes to 65.7%.
Despite this dominance, the manufacturer is just +150 to lead the last lap at Talladega this weekend, which implies a 40% hit rate.
While Ford drivers have struggled to actually win races at this track, especially lately, they haven’t struggled to show speed. That has to pay off at some point, and with the manufacturer catching odds as short as -105 at FanDuel, the Blue Ovals are more than worth a wager at these odds via DraftKings.
🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Jack Link's 500: John Hunter Nemechek (+1200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
When I threw a dart on Nemechek to score a top-five finish before this year’s Daytona 500, I didn’t exactly expect it to hit - it was a long shot for a reason.
But then he finished P5 and cashed the ticket. He also cashed a T20 for me in the process. When someone delivers for you like that, you don’t leave them off your betting card. And, surely enough, he came through with a P10 at Atlanta the next week.
While Nemechek doesn’t have top-tier equipment, he has the experience and know-how to score good results at drafting tracks. That’s exactly what we’re betting on him to do this weekend at Talladega, and we’re again getting generous odds of +1200 for him to do so. Once again, this bet simply has too much value to pass up.
📈 Jack Link's 500 trends & Talladega Superspeedway history
Here are a few Jack Link's 500 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's race at Talladega Superspeedway.
🏎️ Don’t sweat qualifying. Last year’s fall winner here, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., started 34th, continuing a streak of eight straight Talladega winners to have started 10th or worse.
🏎️ Fords lead laps, but they haven’t been getting it done. Since the start of the 2023 season, Ford drivers have led 1,937 of the 2,944 laps run on superspeedway tracks - good for 65.7% - but they’ve led the last lap at Talladega just once in that sample.
🏎️ Lead a bunch of laps? That might not matter. Since the NextGen era began 2022, the driver who led the most laps in a Talladega race finished inside the top 10 just once: Ryan Blaney (P2) in spring 2023.
💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Talladega
When it comes to superspeedway racing, the key is to expect wild outcomes. While there is a clear dominant manufacturer in terms of laps led at this track (Ford), that doesn’t mean you should be afraid to take risks!
- Mix in some long shots. The last winner here, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., came in at +3000. Last summer, Harrison Burton came in at +10000 at Daytona!
- Live bet, live bet, live bet. The books inflate the value of running order early in the race, so you can often find some great outright values who start from - or fall into - the back of the pack.
🏆 Past Jack Link's 500 winners
Here is a look at the last 10 Jack Link's 500 winners entering Sunday's race.
| Year | Driver | Team | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | HYAK Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| Spring 2024 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing | Toyota |
| Fall 2023 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske | Ford |
| Spring 2023 | Kyle Busch | Richard Childress Racing | Chevrolet |
| Fall 2022 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| Spring 2022 | Ross Chastain | Trackhouse Racing | Chevrolet |
| Fall 2021 | Bubba Wallace | 23XI Racing | Toyota |
| Spring 2021 | Brad Keselowski | Team Penske | Ford |
| Fall 2020 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| Summer 2020 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske | Ford |
📺 How to watch the 2025 Jack Link's 500 at Talladega
📅 Sunday, April 27, 2025
🕒 3 p.m. ET
📍 Talladega Superspeedway (Talladega County, Ala.)
📺 FOX | 🛜 FOX Sports App
❓ Jack Link's 500 FAQs
Who is favored to win the Jack Link's 500?
Ryan Blaney is the favorite at odds of between +850 (10.5%, $85 profit on a $10 bet) and +1000 (9.1%, $100).
What are the odds for the Jack Link's 500?
Ryan Blaney (+850), Brad Keselowski (+1200) and Joey Logano (+1200) are among the favorites to win Sunday's race.
What time is the 2025 Jack Link's 500?
The 2025 Jack Link's 500 starts Sunday at 3 p.m. ET (FOX) from Talladega Superspeedway.
How to watch the 2025 Jack Link's 500
You can watch the Jack Link's 500 on FOX or stream it via the FOX Sports App.
Who won the Jack Link's 500 last year?
Last year, Tyler Reddick won the spring Talladega race. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won the fall race.
🏁 Best NASCAR betting sites for Jack Link's 500 at Talladega
Looking to bet on the Jack Link's 500 at Talladega Superspeedway? Here are our best sports betting sites for NASCAR along with our best sportsbook promos ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET.
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